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Supporting Actor:
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Actress:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
Now, you may be asking yourself, why am I talking about the supporting actor nominees and the lead actress nominees, instead of lead and lead, or supporting and supporting, or supporting actress and lead actor? Is it some kind of statement? A feminist commentary? An existential note...?
Uh, no. Those happen to be the two categories I can write about tonight because I've seen all of the nominees (which is how I'm trying to do this thing). Just how it all shook out, it seems.
Right so. Supporting Actor: a lot of people have said that Michael Stuhlbarg and Armie Hammer from Call Me By Your Name were snubbed in this category. Maybe so. You'll hear more from me about that flick in coming days - oh, but yes - but for now let's stick to what we've got. Yes, I agree, it is very likely that Christopher Plummer's last-minute filling in for the disgraced Kevin Spacey in All the Money in the World was kind of a "hey, check out what we can do here, Academy! TIMESUP!" nomination. All the Money in the World was, frankly, forgettable - just blah. But that's only one spot. Anyway, I definitely don't think anyone's really thinking Plummer'll win. It was a statement nomination.
We also have, as it turns out, this always interesting phenomenon of two nominees from the same movie, but from a different movie - instead of Call Me By Your Name's actors it's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri's Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson. I could see Sam Rockwell taking this, not Woody. But. There's a total backlash happening against the (racist? racially clueless? not sufficiently woke? cinematically flawed? all charges have been lodged) Three Billboards... and that might dash Sam Rockwell's dreams. Then again, Sam Rockwell the person is widely well-liked, and may be sufficiently separated in voters' minds from screenwriter/director Martin McDonagh's Irish not-woke-about-U.S.-race-relations-ness. (Which is itself up for debate, but we'll save that for the posts that deal with him in his categories.) I personally thought Sam Rockwell gave a great performance, as he ever does, and I also think that Woody Harrelson gave a great performance, as he ever does, and they were two very different performances in a very weird movie doing battle with Frances McDormand's indomitable performance at the same time. Either one, in my opinion, was better than Christopher Plummer's, but Plummer did pull it off at the last minute, so, degree of difficulty?
As for the other actors: Richard Jenkins was a little creepy along with his weird in The Shape of Water, which, as I have said and will continue to say is one weird-ass film. I don't know why I can't be bothered to say anything else about it; I'm all kinds of willing to talk about the major philosophical, animal rights, human rights, existential, societal, world peace questions presented in it that are so up my alley, but no one wants to talk about those with me so we just keep thinking about the weird fishman and how weird the movie is. Richard Jenkins managed to make me not hate him even as he delivered bad news about a cat, which is in itself an achievement in my book, so I'll say he has a chance in this category, especially if there's a (weird!) The Shape of Water sweep of everything-but-the-biggies, which I'm kind of half-predicting. Lastly, which is one of the first Oscar contenders I saw this season, we have Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project. He was definitely great, but I also think he was kind of not really a supporting role. That movie did not have one star, so naturally the agents/producers/ Hollywood awards season machine leapt at their chance to position him as a supporting actor for awards season and THIS IS ONE OF MY TOP TWO AWARDS SEASON PET PEEVES as anyone who has known me for even one awards season knows. It usually happens in the Supporting Actress category (Viola Davis, Alicia Vikander, Renee Zellweger, et. al.) but this year we're doing it in the Supporting Actor category instead. Great. Equality in the nonsense. So anyway, Dafoe's not-supporting performance was quite good but have I mentioned how much I hated watching The Florida Project? I hesitate to say it wasn't good, but it sure was a miserable experience watching it and nothing I would want to repeat any time soon.
So, who do I want to win? I'll get to that. Let's talk about the Lead Actress noms first.
In short, I think this is a contest between Frances McDormand in Three Billboards... and Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird, with Sally Hawkins as the possible but probably not upset for the (weird!) The Shape of Water. I think Margot Robbie was great in I, Tonya but definitely being honored just to be nominated, and Meryl Streep who is in fact great in The Post is probably not going to win because the movie was formulaic - I don't even think it was bad, just that Steven Spielberg directed it in tried-and-true Hollywood formula with a few cliches style - and with her billions of nominations, voters are more likely to give Meryl another Oscar when she's in something unique, or when it's been a few more years since her most recent formulaic (The Iron Lady) win.
Do I think Meryl or Margot should have more of a chance than they do? Perhaps. I think Meryl Streep's performance had fantastic subtle moments where we watched changes taking place in Katharine Graham's mind and behavior. And Margot Robbie really inhabited her character, too. I was particularly struck by how she flinched when being abused, both by her mother and her husband/ex-husband. But I don't think she'll win. Also worth considering: she did some ice skating (not all of it - of course there were stunt doubles), and the Academy LOVES to reward actors who learn to skate/run/box/dance/play baseball/do karate/whatever for a film, even when the actor still has a stunt double. See, e. fucking g., Natalie Portman's travesty of a win for Black Swan over the incredibly deserving Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right, which was perhaps the greatest Oscars injustice in my lifetime this side of the not-Supporting Actress category, and which was propelled through the awards season juggernaut with a LOT of talk about how much Natalie Portman danced when she in fact ALSO HAD A BALLET DANCER DOUBLE who was apparently strong-armed into hushing up while the Academy was voting and that all just pisses me right off. But. I digress. Margot and Meryl are likely not going to win.
Sally Hawkins is great, and she was quite good in the (sooo weird!) The Shape of Water, and I would be fascinated if she swept in here somehow to steal this from Frances/Saoirse. But let's talk about Frances vs. Saoirse. Frances is beloved because she's fucking awesome and hard core, and that's what her Three Billboards... character is, in a film by an Irish guy examining small town USA, while Saoirse, who was born in the U.S. but is kind of Irish is in a film by a quirky (by reputation if not in reality) U.S. gal about growing up in a small U.S. city. Everyone loves Saoirse and the Academy does LOVE to give Oscars for Actress in a Leading Role to twentysomethings. I mean, they really dig that. But Frances is also uniquely awesome in their eyes. In my opinion, Frances McDormand had a harder job. I loved Saoirse Ronan's performance and think it was superb and I could watch it again. But I am going to have to say I think Frances McDormand had more to do, and did it.
I really have no idea what's going to happen on the big night, though. Really. But what the hell....
My picks: Supporting Actor: I really don't know who I want. Harrelson or Jenkins. Lead Actress: Frances McDormand
Who I think will win: Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Lead Actress: um...ugh...argh...Frances McDormand
Previous Days of Oscar:
Day 3: Production Design and Costume Design
Day 2: Editing and Original Score
Day 1: Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
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