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Quick reminder that I am #TeamBugonia and I would love for that film to be rewarded in spades but let's get real about the Best Actress situation, shall we?
Actress In A Leading Role
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
Rose Byrne- If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
Renata Reinsve - Sentimental Value
Emma Stone - Bugonia
First, I would like to congratulate the Academy for nominating five women in this category. Please keep doing that!
Second, the reality of this situation is that Jessie Buckley is heavily, heavily, heavily favored to win this. And I'm not really mad at that, other than it being no fun to have foregone conclusions or even frontrunners; we want suspense! I liked Hamnet, it was lovely and faithful to the book, her character is earthy and witchy, and also I think Jessie Buckley could maybe play me in the movie of my life. The only thing I'm bummed about is we have had to endure all of Yorgos Lanthimos' weirdo films, including his multiple collaborations with Emma Stone, including the psychotic Poor Things for which she won her second Oscar for goodness' sake (should have been Annette Bening in Nyad that year!!!) and I was so very sick of their madness and then Bugonia this year was so wonderful. Based on everything the two of them have put me through, my expectations couldn't have been lower, so I was pleasantly shocked at how fantastic it was. The best thing Yorgos and Emma have done to us by far, and THIS is the year that she has no real chance? Sigh.
Well but them's the breaks. You know who else likely has no chance and whose performance I greatly enjoyed? Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue. To be clear, that movie was a mess, with both screenplay and tone swinging wildly all over the place and hitting very little, but I could watch Kate singing Neil Diamond songs with Hugh Jackman for another two hours or two days or two months maybe. Absolute Kate Hudson performance charm doing its thing, with some surprise serious moments to really act some different emotional stuff. (Because the movie is all over the place, as mentioned.)
I could be the tiniest bit worried that Renata Reinsve could pull some votes because people have lost their minds about Sentimental Value. This is another film that I liked, after gingerly approaching it with trepidation due to the previous off-putting collaboration from that actress and director. It's no Bugonia, but I really liked it. But it's as if people had decided they were going to nominate her before they even watched it. And nine nominations for the film? Nine?! We kinda need to calm down about Sentimental Value.
And then there is Rose Byrne. She won the Golden Globe for Actress-Musical or Comedy (Jessie Buckley won Actress-Drama of course) and some people are whispering that she maybe upsets and wins the Oscar for the lunatic shitshow that is If I Had Legs I'd Kick You. And there is nothing I want less for this movie than an Oscar, except for how much I want my life to be nothing like anyone's in this movie at any point ever. I do have legs, and if I could kick a film with them, I would kick this one. It is an excruciating journey through several people's terrible behavior, terrible choices, and terrible reactions to other people's behavior and choices. You know how I've praised Hamnet for having three kids in big roles and none of them even slightly annoying? Yeah, If/Legs/Kick is the exact opposite of that. The child is a total nightmare in every way from first scene to last. I am on the hamster's side and everything about this flick can go away. Rose Byrne was definitely fierce and committed and whatnot but my goddesses can we please just not.
And so.
Order I want them to win:
Emma Stone, Jessie Buckley or Kate Hudson, then a big gap, Renata Reinsve, then an even bigger gap, then Rose Byrne please no no no no although at least she is a woman but still just no
Order I think they will win:
Jessie Buckley
Then maybe if there's like voter fraud or we ban Shakespeare or some other crazy thing, maaaaaaybe people will make psychotic choices for Rose Byrne, or get nostalgic about their years of loving Kate Hudson and her family, or feel proud of themselves for watching Renata Reinsve in films with subtitles, or remember how much they like Emma Stone even though they gave her Oscars for all the wrong movies.
But probably it'll be Jessie.
