Well, I finally saw The Zone of Interest. And it was a giant disappointment. But I completed four more categories, so there's that. Guess we'll start here.
OPPENHEIMER: Oh. That. Yeah. Oppenheimer was great, it is going to win some Oscars, and this might be one of them. But - Christopher Nolan adapted it from a book (and an actual real life), unlike, say, some of the other brilliant things that have emerged from his mind as Original over the years, which is not to say he didn't do wholly original and brilliant things with it, just that there's a different starting point. Also, more importantly, he will almost surely win Directing, and the film might win a whole lot of stuff, so this category could be where people back off from him and give Gerwig the prize since they're handsomely rewarding Nolan elsewhere.
THE ZONE OF INTEREST: Now this one is (Zone of) interesting here only because it's utterly baffling to think about how it could possibly garner votes for this category. First of all, it's honestly less of an adapted screenplay than Barbie. It didn't even keep the characters from Martin Amis' book! It took the title and premise and part of the setting and then created an entirely different (lack of) story. The book was a mess in many ways, but this didn't bother trying to improve on it, just said OK literary estate of Martin Amis, thanks for the premise, bye! Secondly, though, what screenplay we have here is - not much. So it's not as if Jonathan Glazer went and wrote a different story; he wrote instead a kind of art project. Now, we all know that I do not care for fever dream projects masquerading as cinematic narratives, so this did not work for me in the slightest. But I also think there are objectively major flaws, such as: what's happening here?! in the infrared sequences that come out of nowhere? if Grandma is going to make a stand can you at least tell us about it? can you in fact depict anything that happens at any point? and what on earth are you trying to say with the ending - that we shouldn't have a museum? Everything is so unclear but on top of that it's also boring. Was his take on the banality of evil that he could one-up everybody by making the most horrific shocking acts of humanity unfathomably dull? Seriously, we know this is going to win International (Foreign) film and maybe Sound, but really don't think it's going to win here.
Barbie
<huge gap>
<chasm>
<the Grand Canyon>
<all of the fabric of space time>
tie for last: Poor Things and The Zone of Interest
Order I think they will win (MAYBE):
Barbie
American Fiction
Oppenheimer
who cares
