Oscars Day is here!
Everything is terrible in current events - but we still have the Oscars.
(Which also have some terrible things happening.)
Best Picture
AnoraThe Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I'm Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Remember: The interesting thing about the Best Picture race, nowadays, is that in the era of the preferential ballot voting (aka ranked choice voting), anything can happen! And if your movie gets a lot of second, third, and fourth place votes, that can help you more than getting a bunch of first and last place votes.
If I were a Best Picture ballot-wielding Academy member voting today, I... would be late, first of all, as voting has already closed. But if I were a Best Picture ballot-wielding Academy member voting on time two weeks ago let's say, here is my ballot!
Order I want them to win - and due to human psychology, affected by "knowing" other people will be voting for certain films:
1.I'm Still Here 2.The Substance 3. Conclave 4. A Complete Unknown 5.Wicked 6.Dune: Part Two 7.Anora 8.The Brutalist
not getting any votes on my ballot (because, simply, I don't want them to win Best Picture - I'm not actually saying there is nothing redeeming about the films. I'm saying I do not think either of them deserves to win Best Picture, and therefore I won't give them even my 9th or 10th place vote for Best Picture): Nickel Boys, Emilia Perez
The five movies that I loved are in my top five spots, with a bit of playing with the order in which I loved them just a bit, to try to put my (fake) vote where it can do the most. My #1 and #2 choices here, are partly because I do NOT think either of those will be the first one eliminated. (I also loved them.) When things start to get serious, I want Conclave to get my vote over Anora and The Brutalist, so I can't put that too far down. I'm sad that I don't think A Complete Unknown has a chance in this category, but I did love it, as I did Wicked, which has slightly more of a chance here of getting loads of second and third place votes. Then spots 6 through 8 are simply the order I want them to have my vote.
Order I think they will win:
Anora or Conclave- I'm still not sure which, The Brutalist, I'm Still Here, Wicked, The Substance, A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, Dune Part Two, Nickel Boys
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